Grammy Nominations Predictions: Kendrick Lamar, Lady Gaga, Sabrina Carpenter and Billie Eilish Will Contend in Top Categories

A year ago, anticipation was high for the 2025 Grammys, which promised a thrilling showdown between pop titans like Beyoncé, Billie Eilish, Taylor Swift, and Chappell Roan. However, the landscape for the 2026 ceremony, airing on February 1, looks markedly different. The eligibility period from September 2024 to August 2025 lacked the barrage of superstar albums typically destined for Grammy sweeps, creating a field where clear front-runners are scarce. This scarcity has shifted the competitive dynamic, opening the door for a wider array of artists to be considered.

In this more open field, Kendrick Lamar stands out as the predominant force. This is a notable development, given his dominance just seven months prior at the 2025 Grammys, where he secured five wins, including Song and Record of the Year for the massive hit "Not Like Us." His current release cycle, which includes several singles and his "GNX" album featuring the standout SZA duet "Luther," spans two eligibility periods, positioning him strongly once again. Dr. Alisha Reed, a music industry analyst, notes, "Lamar's sustained creative output places him in a unique category of his own, making him the artist to beat even in a year with fewer blockbuster releases." Despite this, a compelling narrative exists for his potential Album of the Year win, an award that has eluded him despite four previous nominations for his own albums and a nomination as a featured artist on the "Black Panther" soundtrack. A sweep for Lamar would also be seen as a significant moment for the Recording Academy, which has historically been criticized for under-recognizing hip-hop artists.

Beyond Lamar, other contenders have emerged. Sabrina Carpenter submitted her well-received album "Man's Best Friend" just before the August 30 eligibility deadline, joining her single "Manchild" as a potential contender. Many of pop's biggest stars were absent this cycle; Swift and Beyoncé released no new material, while Eilish's single "Wildflower" is eligible from a previously submitted album. Chappell Roan released two non-album singles, "The Giver" and "The Subway," with the latter being submitted to top categories to consolidate votes. A major wild card is Lady Gaga, whose album "Mayhem" received widespread critical acclaim, a stark contrast to her previous album "Chromatica," which was released during the pandemic's peak. The success of her concurrent U.S. tour could provide the momentum needed for a surprise top-category victory, a redemption story that would resonate deeply with audiences.

The race also features intriguing possibilities from artists with varying Grammy histories. Justin Bieber's stylistic shift on his "Swag" era presents a question mark for voters, while there is curiosity about whether Latin music will return to major categories. Alex Warren, with his multiplatinum single "Ordinary," represents a commercial powerhouse looking for Grammy validation. Variety's forecast for the top four all-genre categories—Album, Record, and Song of the Year, and Best New Artist—predicts eight nominees in each, supplemented by ten additional possibilities per category to account for the Grammys' famous unpredictability. The nominations will be announced on November 7.

For Album of the Year, Lamar's "GNX" is the undeniable favorite, seen as a more accessible and enjoyable step forward from his dense 2022 album, "Mr. Morale and the Big Steppers." Carpenter and Gaga also present strong cases with their critically and commercially successful albums, though they risk splitting the poptimist vote. Other potential nominees include perennial favorites like Jon Batiste and Coldplay, while artists like Bad Bunny and Brandi Carlile (the latter for her collaboration with Elton John) have compelling narratives. A bold pick is Laufey, whose jazz-pop sound has earned her a dedicated following and sold-out arenas, likely appealing to a broad swath of voters. Notably, Morgan Wallen, whose "I'm the Problem" was the year's biggest album, is not submitting, while former holdouts The Weeknd and Drake have returned to the Grammy fold.

In the Record and Song of the Year categories, Lamar and SZA's "Luther" is the runaway favorite, benefiting from Lamar's momentum and SZA's star power. Billie Eilish's "Wildflower," with over 1.5 billion Spotify streams, is a formidable contender, potentially as a make-good for her previous hit "Birds of a Feather" missing out. The summer anthems "Ordinary" by Alex Warren and "Golden" from "KPop Demon Hunters" are wild cards; their populist appeal could either be embraced or dismissed by voters, much like past hits "Blinding Lights" or "The Shape of You" which were surprisingly snubbed. Strategic submissions are also at play, with Roan opting for "The Subway" over "The Giver," and Gaga leading with the commanding "Abracadabra."

The Best New Artist category is the most wide-open of the major awards, with no clear front-runner. Country music has a strong showing with Megan Moroney and Noah Kahan—who are tied for the most CMA Award nominations—and Zach Top, potentially signaling a breakthrough for the genre in this category. The Marias, with their cross-genre appeal, emerge as a slight favorite, while the commercially dominant Alex Warren looms as a potential spoiler. This category truly embodies the unpredictable nature of the upcoming Grammys, where any of the eight predicted front-runners could realistically take home the award.