Box Office: Taylor Swift’s ‘Release Party of a Showgirl’ Reigns With $15.8 Million Opening Day, Dwayne Johnson’s ‘Smashing Machine’ Tenses Up in Third

The cinematic landscape this October is a tale of two extremes, dominated by the immense power of a dedicated fanbase. Taylor Swift's latest cinematic event, "The Official Release Party of a Show Girl," delivered a staggering $15.8 million on its opening Friday. Distributed directly by AMC Theatres—the world's largest movie theater chain—the 89-minute film played in 3,702 locations and is now projected to earn a weekend total between $25 and $30 million. This surprise three-day engagement, announced with only two weeks' notice, functions as a promotional extension for Swift's recently released 12th studio album, merging music videos, behind-the-scenes footage, and lyric videos into an unconventional theatrical experience where dancing in the aisles is actively encouraged. Audience polling firm Cinema Score awarded the event a rare "A+" grade, confirming its successful launch.

In a starkly different outcome, A24's "The Smashing Machine" is faltering in its debut. The UFC biopic, which casts Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson in a rare R-rated dramatic role, earned a mere $2.6 million from Friday and preview screenings across 3,345 venues. This places the film on track for a disappointing third-place opening, falling dramatically short of projections that had estimated over $8 million. Should these numbers hold, it would mark the lowest opening of Johnson's career as a leading man, a record previously held by the 2010 film "Faster." Industry analyst Mark Fletcher noted, "The Swift event created a perfect storm, siphoning off the premium large-format screens and audience attention that a film like 'The Smashing Machine' desperately needed to hit its targets." This is a particularly concerning start given the film's substantial $50 million production budget, making it one of A24's most expensive ventures. Despite a strong marketing push and director Benny Safdie's prize-winning debut at the Venice Film Festival, audience reception has been tepid, reflected in a "B-" Cinema Score.

Meanwhile, Warner Bros.' "One Battle After Another" is demonstrating impressive staying power in its second weekend. The contemporary comedy epic, directed by Paul Thomas Anderson and starring Leonardo DiCaprio, added $3.3 million on Friday, representing a modest decline of just 43% from its opening day. The film's strong word-of-mouth, burgeoning awards season buzz, and high demand for premium format screenings are fueling its endurance. Having retained most of its IMAX screens, its domestic total is projected to reach $42 million by Sunday. However, with a reported production budget exceeding $130 million, the film will require many more weeks of steady performance to reach profitability. Paul Thomas Anderson, the acclaimed director behind films like "There Will Be Blood" and "Boogie Nights," is navigating his most commercially ambitious project to date with this sprawling comedy.

Further down the chart, family audiences are proving less reliable. Universal's "Gabby's Dollhouse: The Movie," an adaptation of the popular Netflix children's series, is experiencing a steep 66% decline in its second weekend. After earning $1.2 million on Friday, it is projected to finish the weekend with $4.7 million, bringing its domestic cumulative to $21 million. This sharp drop suggests that the immense streaming popularity of the original show has not translated into a lasting theatrical draw. In other new releases, Disney's re-release of "Avatar: The Way of Water" earned a modest $1.1 million, a far cry from the $10 million opening generated by the original "Avatar's" 2022 re-release. IFC Films' horror indie "Good Boy," filmed entirely from a dog's perspective, debuted to approximately $980,000. Finally, Focus Features' "Anemone," which marks Daniel Day-Lewis's first role since his Oscar-nominated performance in 2017's "Phantom Thread," opened quietly with just $310,000.